Tom Flynn- “The Demographics of Unbelief- who are these doubters anyway?”

Tom Flynn is Executive Director of the Council for Secular Humanism; Editor of Free Inquiry Magazine; author of the Encyclopedia of Unbelief, The Trouble With Christmas, and other works. He is a fully recovered Catholic, God-free since 1980.

 

            His topic was “The Demographics of Unbelief – Who Are These Doubters Anyway?”

 

            Flynn stressed that throughout history, “people like us” have been very much in the minority; and if you think the societal climate is hostile, it was way worse in past times. But nevertheless, Flynn avowed, it’s such people who have been in the vanguard of civilizational progress, with an impact greatly disproportionate to their numbers.

 

            He gave us a blizzard of data, with the bottom line being that nonbelief is surging. While a 2000 Gallup poll showed fewer Americans would willingly vote for an atheist than for a member of virtually any other grouping, Flynn saw good news even there – because 49% said they would vote for an atheist. And while 50 years ago only 2-3% of poll respondents identified “none of the above” as their religion, in 1990 it was about 8%, and today around 16%. That means about 49 million Americans are outside conventional religion – a bigger societal segment than Hispanics, African-Americans, Gays, or Jews.

 

            Flynn noted a theory that most of those 49 million “nones” are really just “denomination shoppers” rather than nonbelievers. However, he cited a 2004 Pew-Bliss survey finding that only 33% of “nones” call themselves “spiritual but not religious” while the rest are atheist, agnostic, or secular.

 

            He also discussed a 2006 Baylor University survey that found higher numbers for God. But Baylor is a Southern Baptist school and Flynn dissected the study’s biases. But he also noted Baylor’s datum that 86.5% of evangelicals have no doubt God exists – so even 13.5% of them do have doubts!

 

            Another point was that nonbelief correlates with age. Younger people are far more likely to so identify themselves than are older folk. The future implications are obvious.

 

            Flynn noted 1916 and 1933 studies by James Leuba finding only 40% of U.S. scientists believing in God or an afterlife. A 1997 study got similar results, and much media attention. But Flynn pointed out that while about 40% still believed in immortality, the desire for it had plummeted. Further, surveys focusing on top U.S. Scientists found their belief plunging from 28-35% in 1914 to only 7-8% in 1998. Flynn added that a 2003 survey of 149 eminent evolutionary scientists found only two calling themselves “theists.” [Well, there’s a spoiler or two in every crowd.]

 

            Then there are surveys wherein 40% of Americans claim they attended church the preceding Sunday. If true, there actually wouldn’t be enough pew seats. Flynn cited a study that involved actual in-church headcounts, finding the truth at about 20%. Evidently a lot of people think that lying to pollsters makes them appear to be better Christians. [Isn’t there a Commandment about that?]

 

            A further topic was the relative rarity of atheists among criminals in prisons. A 1936 study found that “convicts as a class seem to be the most religious people in the country.” There isn’t more recent data; authorities will no longer permit such surveys; perhaps for obvious reasons.

 

            Some studies show better mental health among believers than nonbelievers. Flynn didn’t entirely disagree – but cited a 2009 study that showed good psychological outlooks among both confirmed believers and confirmed atheists; with the problems concentrated among “agnostics” who lack confidence in what they believe. [Thus it’s better to be firm than right.]

 

            Flynn noted the “secularization hypothesis” of sociologist Max Weber (1864-1920): that as prosperity and scientific understanding spread, religion will decline. And this is happening throughout the world. Islam is the only faith that is really growing – due to high birth rates. It’s unbelief that’s really exploding, even though nonbelievers are not generally proselytizers (and couldn’t outbreed any sect, excepting perhaps the Shakers). This is a matter of adult choice – voluntary conversion.

 

           In a similar vein, Flynn discussed work by Gregory Paul and Philip Zuckerman holding that whenever a nation becomes truly advanced in democratic egalitarianism, and material comfort and security religion crumbles as no longer needed. Thus, Europe’s abandonment of religion, versus American religious exceptionalism, are explained on the notion that we don’t have here such halcyon egalitarianism and security against life’s vicissitudes as in Europe.

 

            [FSR comment: Gregory Paul gave a presentation along these lines at the 2008 Humanist world congress, and was met with virulent skepticism for lack of convincing data. I think it’s basically wrong. Paul’s thesis wishfully embodies the leftist narrative that, compared with advanced and humane Europe, America is a hellhole of inequality, societal harshness, and insecurity. I find this contrast vastly exaggerated, and in the big picture, levels of equality, material comfort, and personal security in the two regions are far more similar than they are different. I think the religious divergence is instead deeply rooted in the very different cultural/political evolution each region has followed with regard to religion’s role in society. And anyhow, America may well be following the same path as Europe – just slower.